Spanish Election Betting

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Spanish Election Betting: Feijoo Favourite In Race With Prime Minister Sanchez

Betting sites expect Spain to elect a new government in July after prime minister Pedro Sanchez “gambled” on a snap election six months out from the next scheduled vote.

Spaniards will head to the polls on July 23 in a general election that could have major consequences on European politics.

All 350 seats in the lower house Chamber of Deputies are to be contested, as well as the majority of the Senate.

Spain’s election is a textbook case of right versus left, with Sanchez’s Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) expected to underperform against Alberto Nunez Feijoo’s People’s Party (PP).

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PSOE have been trailing in the polls for much of the past year, as right-wing sentiment continues to grow across the country.

Not only are PP now the most popular party but the nationalist Vox party doubled their vote share at the recent local elections.

Sanchez, aware of the swelling tide against him, has chosen to call a snap election in the hope he can recapture support over the next eight weeks. But UK bookmakers reckon his gamble won’t pay off.

According to politics betting sites, Sanchez is 5/4 to be prime minister after the upcoming Spanish election. Those odds carry an implied probability of 44.4%.

In contrast, Feijoo is around 3/10, which implies he has a 73.3% chance of being the next Spanish prime minister.

The odds reflect the polls. PP have polled between five and eight points ahead of PSOE for the best part of a year.

What’s more, PP have recovered their numbers from spring 2022 when Vox gained a swathe of support, only for it to fall again.

What was first considered a two-horse election is now a contest of three. Vox won’t win it and their leader Santiago Abascal isn’t going to be prime minister any time soon. But he could be the kingmaker if the vote is split between PP and PSOE.

Podemos could also act as kingmaker, having been part of the coalition government with PSOE.

Movimiento Sumar and the Catalan-independence party ERC will also be seeking to gain seats in this election, but their leaders won’t challenge for the prime ministership.

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Who Will Win The Spanish Election?

One could argue Sanchez has seen the writing on the wall for months, and has chosen to jump ahead with a snap election rather than wait another six months when his party’s chances of winning will be even worse.

Here, at least PSOE have a chance of forming a coalition with other left-leaning parties. But betting apps and pollsters all think this is going one way.

Feijoo should win enough votes to hold power here. It’s unlikely he will lead PP to a majority victory in itself, but he’ll have the support of a surging Vox to get over the line – even though the majority of voters don’t want Abascal anywhere near the seat of power.

It’s this proposition that Sanchez is hoping will kill the conservative vote. The right wing won a fair few cities at recent local elections and this has only intensified the scrutiny on Vox.

The gamble Sanchez hopes will pay off is that by triggering an election when Vox and right-wing populism is in the headlines, he hopes to draw votes back to the centre ground.

Do centre-right conservatives really want to vote for PP if they open the door for Vox?

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It’s a tactic that worked for Portugal’s Antonio Costa, who last year warned a vote for mild conservatism would pave the way for extremism.

This gamble only adds to the chaos of this snap election. It’s being held in July when many Spaniards are on holiday, and the postal voting system is a mess.

It may be that the country has to vote during another summer heatwave that causes disruption at polling stations.

Sanchez hopes the chaos will aid his chances of winning. Feijoo hopes he can secure a majority without the need to flirt with the populist right. And new betting sites reckon it’s the latter who is on course for victory right now.

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How Spanish Elections Work

Spain’s next general election takes place on July 23. Spaniards will vote for an entirely new lower chamber, as well as around 80% of the seats in the senate.

Whichever party holds a majority in the Chamber of Deputies will form a government, and its leader will be the next prime minister.

Spain has for the last four years been ruled under a coalition between the PSOE, Sumar and Unidas Podemos. It might be the case that these parties come together again to form a centre-left bloc.

However, it’s also possible that the right-wing PP will either win a majority or form a coalition with the populist Vox.

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There are 350 constituencies across Spain and counting takes place usually overnight. It’s often the case that exit polls indicate clearly which party has won a majority.

Sixty-nine of Spain’s constituencies are based in either Madrid or Barcelona, while other big regions include Valencia, Alicante, Malaga and Seville.

There are five televised debates currently scheduled for mid-July, which includes one-on-one battles between Sanchez and Feijoo on RTVE and Atresmedia. Vox, Unidas Podemos and Sumar will also have representatives on some of the debates.