March 29, 2024
Joe Biden Full Presidency Term Betting Odds

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Betting Opens on Joe Biden Completing Full Term of Presidency

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UK betting sites have nudged Joe Biden’s odds of completing his first term as US president to an all-new high following the agreement to raise the country’s debt ceiling.

Biden and Republican House speaker Kevin McCarthy came to a fairly swift economic agreement that averted a potentially catastrophic default in early June. 

The US routinely increases its government borrowing limit, but a Republican-majority House had made this summer’s agreement more testy than usual.


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The deal has raised the US debt limit above $31.4trn (£25trn) and gives politicians two years to set their budgets, with the 2024 election now looming.

Biden is seeking re-election next year and his approval rating is plummeting. But UK bookmakers reckon his latest deal with the GOP at least keeps him in his job until the next election.

Indeed, some bookies have even expanded the odds of Biden’s biggest rival – Donald Trump – off the back of the cross-party agreement to raise the national debt.

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Joe Biden Odds

According to political betting sites, Biden now has a 90% chance of seeing out his first term in office. 

His odds of 1/9 are a historic low for the president, and highlights just how important the debt deal was. 

Any speculation that Biden could have been impeached had the government run out of money has now been washed away.

Indeed, there is now practically no chance the president would be ousted before his first term is up. 

Focus is therefore switching to the next election, and whether or not the Democrats can withstand a fresh wave of Republican support.

Right now, BetVictor have Biden at 13/8 to win the 2024 US election. Those odds carry an implied probability of 38.1%. 

Biden’s biggest rival, Trump, was floating around 9/4 (30.8% probability) but in the past few days some bookmakers have widened his odds to 5/2 (28.6%).

That shift on Trump’s odds isn’t big, but it could indicate a boost for Biden. After all, the president is still the favourite to win the next election even though Biden is polling at -14.3.

Biden Leads Trump in Betting Odds

There are a few reasons why Biden is ahead of Trump in the 2024 US presidential election betting odds. 

The first is that an incumbent president always has a poll and odds boost heading into a re-election campaign. It’s harder for the challenger to persuade voters that change is a good thing.

The other reason is Trump still doesn’t have the GOP nomination. 

He is up against Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and a string of other Republicans to get the nod next year. The GOP primaries are going to be one hell of a battle for supremacy of the party. 

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At present, Biden tops the odds because there is no single candidate for the opposition to rally around.

The big worry for the Democrats is what happens when the Republicans pick their candidate. Trump is 1/2 with Ladbrokes to get the nod, with DeSantis out at 11/4

The likes of Haley, Mike Pence and Tim Scott are so far out that few consider them even worth backing.

However, Biden is polling between two points ahead and eight points behind Trump, and is pretty much level with Ron DeSantis


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The Dems are throwing their chips behind the 80-year-old and need him to increase those numbers. A new debt deal certainly helps, but voters will have forgotten about that come fall 2024. 

Between now and then Biden needs to calm economic fluctuations such as rising inflation, find an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine, tackle climate issues, and hold firm over Chinese aggression.

This is no easy task, and all the while the right is pushing harder and harder on divisive issues around censorship, gun control, and abortion access. 

America is just as split as it was under Trump’s reign and Biden needs to show he is a unifying force if he is to stay in office past 2024.

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